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Horizon 2030 · Strategic Intelligence

The 2026 Commercial

Landscape

Tracking where the world's largest organisations are focusing, investing, and repositioning - and what each of those decisions means for the design of human experience.

$10T+

Capital tracked

97

Live briefs mapped

73

No partner named

3

Sectors covered

"Where the money goes, the world follows. The design dividend available inside each of those capital movements is largely unclaimed."

Sector
SignalStatus

Sector

Rail & Transit
FMCG
B2B Events

Size = Capital

Click a pin for details

97 briefs shown

Capital in Motion

8 capital clusters. One design imperative.

AI infrastructure

The intelligence race

$600B+

Amazon + Google + Meta + Microsoft 2026 capex

Energy & capital equipment

The power rebuild

$21B

GE Vernova $10B, Siemens $10B, Siemens Energy $1B

Health & longevity

The body economy

$37.5B

Eli Lilly $27B, Novo Nordisk $6B, AstraZeneca $4.5B

Transport & mobility

Passenger experience

$1.24T

Confirmed global rail investment

Tourism, retail, hospitality

The future of place

$63.8B

Disney $60B, Inditex €2.8B, Hilton $1.2B

Financial services

The money machine

$24.2B

JPMorgan $14B, Visa $5.2B, PayPal $5B

Luxury, FMCG, consumer

The premium grab

€16.5B

L'Oréal €7.5B, Unilever €9B brand investment

Creative services

Creative pathways

£0.9B+

WPP £400M restructure, Publicis €500M AI, Accenture $3B

Lookbook · Rail & Transit

$1.24 trillion in confirmed global rail investment

4 out of 5 priority passenger experience briefs are currently open and unawarded. The human-centred design layer sitting on top of the biggest infrastructure spend in human history remains largely unplaced.

Key insights

The 85/15 split

85% of experience design work is handled internally, but the 15% that goes external goes to agencies with existing relationships and sector credibility. One named relationship with Arup, WSP, or Mott MacDonald is worth more than any amount of direct client outreach.

The Gulf is the entry point

Qatar Rail Phase 1 proved external commissioning at the highest level. Phase 2B, Etihad Rail, and Dubai Blue Line are all live simultaneously - creating a cluster of open briefs in a geography that actively values international design partners.

Consultancy relationships are the key

Arup, WSP, Mott MacDonald, and Hill International recommend who does experience design. The procurement decision is often made two levels above the design brief. Getting known as a credible rail experience partner at programme level changes the economics.

Spotlight opportunities

Etihad Rail - Passenger Service Phase 1

$542M

No partner namedMiddle East

Qatar Rail Phase 2B - Passenger Experience

$1.2B

No partner namedMiddle East

Brightline West - Las Vegas to LA

$8B

No partner namedAmericas

Mumbai–Ahmedabad NHSRL

$17B

No partner namedAsia Pacific

Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop

A$34.5B

No partner namedAsia Pacific

Full intelligence matrix (23 organisations)

OrganisationCapitalStatusRegionLaunchPriority
HS2 Phase 2 - Passenger Experience£28BWarm entryEurope2029
Eurostar International Expansion€2.4BNo partner namedEurope2026
SNCF TGV Next - Interior Renewal€7BWarm entryEurope2027
Deutsche Bahn ICE 3neo - Experience Layer€4.2BWarm entryEurope2026
Trenitalia Frecciarossa 1000 Upgrade€1.8BNo partner namedEurope2027
Infrabel Belgian Rail Modernisation€6.1BNo partner namedEurope2028
Oslo–Copenhagen Intercity RailNOK 100B+No partner namedEurope2030
Etihad Rail - Passenger Service Phase 1$542MNo partner namedMiddle East2026
Qatar Rail Phase 2B - Passenger Experience$1.2BNo partner namedMiddle East2027
Riyadh Metro - Experience Layer Phase 2$3.2BWarm entryMiddle East2026
Dubai Blue Line MetroAED 18BNo partner namedMiddle East2029
Egypt National High Speed Rail$4.5BNo partner namedMiddle East2028
Brightline West - Las Vegas to LA$8BNo partner namedAmericas2028
Amtrak Acela Fleet Renewal$2BWarm entryAmericas2026
California High Speed Rail$105BNo partner namedAmericas2030
Brazil High Speed Rail - São Paulo/RioR$99BNo partner namedAmericas2031
Mumbai–Ahmedabad NHSRL$17BNo partner namedAsia Pacific2026
Melbourne Suburban Rail LoopA$34.5BNo partner namedAsia Pacific2035
Sydney Metro WestA$25BWarm entryAsia Pacific2030
Japan Chūō Shinkansen Maglev¥9TIncumbent namedAsia Pacific2037
Singapore–Kuala Lumpur HSR Revival$14BNo partner namedAsia Pacific2031
Seoul GTX - Express NetworkKRW 16TNo partner namedAsia Pacific2028
Jakarta MRT Phase 3 Expansion$2.8BNo partner namedAsia Pacific2029

Join the dialogue on Rail & Transit

Senior leaders navigating this landscape. By invitation.

Lookbook · FMCG

$120 billion in portfolio restructuring announced in 18 months

Not investment in new markets - the reorganisation of existing ones. Every portfolio move (acquisition, divestiture, demerger, premium push) generates new design requirements. Most of them go unmet, not because design is deprioritised, but because the brief doesn't exist yet.

Key insights

Portfolio focus means higher stakes design

The brands being kept are being asked to carry more weight than ever before. That is not less design work: it is higher-stakes design work concentrated in fewer brands. The brief is not renovation - it is elevation.

Post-acquisition integration is the brief

Mars/Kellanova $35.9B, L'Oréal/Kering €4B, Kenvue $51.4B. Every one of these is a brand architecture brief waiting to be placed. The window to influence is 12–18 months post-close - after that, decisions calcify.

Channel fragmentation is the real design challenge

Packaging used to have one job. Now it has four. The same product must perform on shelf, phone screen, delivery box, and DTC storefront simultaneously. Most brand teams are managing this with a shelf-first design system built in 2015.

Spotlight opportunities

Unilever Powerbrands - €9B Brand Investment

€9B

Warm entryEurope

L'Oréal - Kering Beauty Integration

€4B+

No partner namedEurope

Mars/Kellanova - $35.9B Integration

$35.9B

No partner namedNorth America

Almarai - Gulf Expansion Programme

SAR 15B

No partner namedMiddle East & Africa

Tata Consumer - Global Powerhouse Push

₹23,000Cr

No partner namedAsia Pacific

Full intelligence matrix (36 organisations)

OrganisationCapitalStatusRegionLaunchPriority
Unilever Powerbrands - €9B Brand Investment€9BWarm entryEurope2026
L'Oréal - Kering Beauty Integration€4B+No partner namedEurope2026
Nestlé - Portfolio Reset & PremiumisationCHF 3BWarm entryEurope2026
Diageo - Premiumisation Drive$1.8BNo partner namedEurope2026
Heineken - Brand Experience Evolution€1.2BWarm entryEurope2026
Reckitt - Health & Hygiene Push£2.1BNo partner namedEurope2027
Danone - Protein & Nutrition Transformation€1.6BNo partner namedEurope2027
AB InBev - Premium Portfolio Expansion$2.8BWarm entryEurope2026
Beiersdorf - Luxury & Dermatology Push€900MNo partner namedEurope2027
Mars/Kellanova - $35.9B Integration$35.9BNo partner namedNorth America2026
PepsiCo - Positive Transformation$4.7BWarm entryNorth America2026
Coca-Cola - Reframe & Total Beverages$3.8BWarm entryNorth America2026
P&G - Premium Portfolio Play$5.2BWarm entryNorth America2026
Kenvue - J&J Consumer Rebrand$51.4BNo partner namedNorth America2026
Mondelez - Snacking Reinvention$2.2BNo partner namedNorth America2027
Kraft Heinz - Rebuild & Re-elevation$1.4BNo partner namedNorth America2027
Campbell's - Recipe for Growth Reset$900MNo partner namedNorth America2027
Almarai - Gulf Expansion ProgrammeSAR 15BNo partner namedMiddle East & Africa2027
Americana Group - Franchise Elevation$800MNo partner namedMiddle East & Africa2027
Savola Group - Consumer Brand PushSAR 4BNo partner namedMiddle East & Africa2028
Patchi Chocolate - Global Luxury Push$250MNo partner namedMiddle East & Africa2026
Tiger Brands - Africa Market PushZAR 11BNo partner namedMiddle East & Africa2028
Lactalis MEA - Premium Dairy Expansion€900MNo partner namedMiddle East & Africa2027
Tata Consumer - Global Powerhouse Push₹23,000CrNo partner namedAsia Pacific2026
ITC - FMCG Diversification₹15,000CrNo partner namedAsia Pacific2027
Hindustan Unilever - Premiumisation Drive₹30,000CrWarm entryAsia Pacific2026
Kirin Holdings - Health Premium Expansion¥230BNo partner namedAsia Pacific2027
Asahi Premium International¥180BNo partner namedAsia Pacific2027
WH Group - International Brand Elevation$2.4BNo partner namedAsia Pacific2028
Yili Innovation - International PushRMB 22BNo partner namedAsia Pacific2027
Vitasoy - Brand Refresh & ExpansionHKD 3.3BNo partner namedAsia Pacific2026
Grupo Bimbo - Global Refresh$2.2BNo partner namedLatin America2027
Grupo Lala - Premium Dairy PushMXN 14BNo partner namedLatin America2027
Arcor - Global Portfolio Elevation$1.1BNo partner namedLatin America2028
JBS - Global Brand ElevationR$17BNo partner namedLatin America2028
FEMSA - Premium Retail & BrandMXN 50BNo partner namedLatin America2026

Join the dialogue on FMCG

Senior leaders navigating this landscape. By invitation.

Lookbook · B2B Events

38 flagship events. $300M+ in annual production spend.

Every major B2B technology company runs an annual flagship event for its customers. The venues are world-class, the production values are high, the content is carefully prepared. The question of what they could be - as designed experiences, as opposed to produced spectacles - has been asked seriously in only a handful of cases.

Key insights

Scale inflection creates the open window

Events moving from mid-size to major faster than internal teams can adapt. The window to shape the brief is before they reach that scale, not after. Once Freeman and Jack Morton are locked in, the experience design layer is already determined.

AI is the agenda but not the experience

There is a consistent gap between what these events are talking about - intelligence, automation, the future of work - and what they feel like to attend. That gap is the brief. The experience should embody the promise, not merely describe it.

Physical/digital split is undesigned

Most hybrid formats run two parallel events with no designed relationship between them. The in-room experience ignores the remote audience. The digital broadcast ignores the physical energy. This is a solved design problem that has not yet been solved in this sector.

Spotlight opportunities

Autodesk University - Experience Redesign

$45M annual

No partner namedNorth America

ServiceNow Knowledge - Scale Moment

$60M annual

No partner namedNorth America

Snowflake Summit - Breakout Moment

$40M annual

No partner namedNorth America

Databricks Data+AI Summit

$30M annual

No partner namedNorth America

inD JV - Informa/DWTC Experience Platform

$500M JV

No partner namedMiddle East & APAC

Full intelligence matrix (38 organisations)

OrganisationCapitalStatusRegionLaunchPriority
Autodesk University - Experience Redesign$45M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
ServiceNow Knowledge - Scale Moment$60M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
Salesforce Dreamforce - Experience Evolution$150M+ annualWarm entryNorth America2026
Microsoft Ignite - Hybrid Experience$80M annualWarm entryNorth America2026
AWS re:Invent - Premium Experience Layer$200M+ annualWarm entryNorth America2026
Google Cloud Next - Brand Experience$90M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
Oracle CloudWorld - Revitalisation$70M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
SAP Sapphire - AI Experience Shift$55M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
Workday Rising - Premium HR Tech Event$35M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
Snowflake Summit - Breakout Moment$40M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
Databricks Data+AI Summit$30M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
PTC LiveWorx - Industrial IoT Experience$25M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
Siemens DI Forum - Digital Twin Experience$28M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
Bentley Year in Infrastructure$22M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
ESRI User Conference - Mapping Experience$30M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
Trimble Dimensions - Transformation Event$18M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
IBM Think - AI Era Transformation$50M annualWarm entryNorth America2026
Cisco Live - Network Experience$65M annualWarm entryNorth America2026
HPE Discover - GreenLake Experience$40M annualNo partner namedNorth America2026
Dassault 3DExperience World$30M annualNo partner namedEurope2026
SAP NOW Europe - Digital Enterprise€25M annualNo partner namedEurope2026
MongoDB World Europe$15M annualNo partner namedEurope2026
Aveva World - Industrial Intelligence$20M annualNo partner namedEurope2026
Hexagon Live - Reality Capture$22M annualNo partner namedEurope2026
Siemens Realize Live Europe€28M annualNo partner namedEurope2026
PTC Europe User Summit£12M annualNo partner namedEurope2026
GITEX Global - World Tech Conference$120M annualWarm entryMiddle East & APAC2026
inD JV - Informa/DWTC Experience Platform$500M JVNo partner namedMiddle East & APAC2026
ADIPEC - Energy Transition Experience$80M annualWarm entryMiddle East & APAC2026
AWS Summit Singapore$30M annualWarm entryMiddle East & APAC2026
Google Cloud Next APAC$25M annualNo partner namedMiddle East & APAC2026
Salesforce World Tour SydneyA$18M annualNo partner namedMiddle East & APAC2026
Microsoft Tech Summit Asia$22M annualNo partner namedMiddle East & APAC2026
Africa Tech Festival - Cape Town$12M annualNo partner namedEmerging2026
India Mobile Congress - Digital India₹420CrNo partner namedEmerging2026
LEAP Conference - Saudi Tech VisionSAR 300MWarm entryEmerging2026
GITEX Africa - Marrakech$25M annualNo partner namedEmerging2026
eMerge Americas - Latin Tech$15M annualNo partner namedEmerging2026

Join the dialogue on B2B Events

Senior leaders navigating this landscape. By invitation.

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